http://teodesian.net//posts/c322c019-13f9-11ec-bdd7-cadea5d78e23?format=xml teodesian.net : /posts/c322c019-13f9-11ec-bdd7-cadea5d78e23 en 2026-04-21T20:43:07 2026-04-21T20:43:07 /favicon.ico http://teodesian.net 32 32 teodesian.net favicon http://teodesian.net/posts/c322c019-13f9-11ec-bdd7-cadea5d78e23 I think this is the Fed’s real conundrum this late in a business cycle. If the economy is running solidly and leading economic indicators are bullish, the Fed is hard-pressed to not raise rates in an environment in which headline unemployment is low and falling, asset prices are rich, and lending standards have loosened — even if the yield curve is flattening. Aren’t they supposed to take the punch bowl away?

I don’t have the answer to that question. Time and again, late in the cycle, the Fed has indeed taken the punch bowl away. And the result was recession and financial crisis.

That’s exactly why this is the most dangerous period in the business cycle ...Or you could just END THE FED and not have to worry about this BS ever again.]]> teo http://teodesian.net/posts/c322c019-13f9-11ec-bdd7-cadea5d78e23 2017-11-30T08:24:46 http://teodesian.net/posts/1512030286 I think this is the Fed’s real conundrum this late in a business cycle. If the economy is running solidly and leading economic indicators are bullish, the Fed is hard-pressed to not raise rates in an environment in which headline unemployment is low and falling, asset prices are rich, and lending standards have loosened — even if the yield curve is flattening. Aren’t they supposed to take the punch bowl away?

I don’t have the answer to that question. Time and again, late in the cycle, the Fed has indeed taken the punch bowl away. And the result was recession and financial crisis.

That’s exactly why this is the most dangerous period in the business cycle ...Or you could just END THE FED and not have to worry about this BS ever again.]]> teo http://teodesian.net/posts/1512030286 2017-11-30T08:24:46